Rain returns today with potential larger storm next week - KSBY.com | San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Area News

Rain returns today with potential larger storm next week

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A low-pressure system with an occluded front just off the Central Coast, that front slowly pushes over the area into Thursday morning.

There will be a bit of a southerly wind in advance of the low which is helping to drag some sub-tropical moisture into the area.

We'll transition from the warm side into the cooler side of the low by Friday.  The entire period should be unsettled with some scattered showers.  I don't think we'll see any prolific totals with the system.  Generally, we'll see light amounts (under .10") to as much as .60" up along the SLO county north coast.  Higher elevations with south faces could see a bit more.  I think most reports will be .05-.25" with less inland and southern SB county.

We'll see a dry weekend with offshore winds in the night and morning hours, but not a strong push, under 20mph with onshore breezes in the afternoon.  

Both major mid-range models have been seeing the development of a strong area of low pressure for next Tuesday into Wednesday.  If this does spin up it has interesting potential.  For one some strong southerly winds could develop before the low drawing up some ample moisture.  Wind speeds could be up to 35mph.  If this all comes together the burn areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura County could have to be watched carefully for periods of heavy rain and potential for debris flows.  One model is showing an inch to 1.50" with another showing 1.5" to 3".  The southerly flow could cause some enhancement of those numbers.  These are long range models and their forecasts do change but this is definitely a period of time to watch carefully.

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