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Marine layer has moderated the temps but future rain potential s - KSBY.com | San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Area News

Marine layer has moderated the temps but future rain potential still limited

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Offshore flow beneath ridging aloft will keep fair skies and a warming trend over the area through Friday. Then, a series of troughs of low pressure will drop into the region from the northwest through early next week. A cooling trend should commence on Friday with periods of gusty winds early next week. Any night through morning low clouds and fog will mainly remain confined to the coast through early next week. 
 
We had a little bit of an offshore push early but it was limited which has kept the marine layer in play at the beaches and near coastal valleys, the interior was warm again today.  We'll see more clouds into the near coastal valleys tonight with a similar clearing pattern Thursday.

Onshore flow picks up again into the weekend for some cooling.

Then we enter a period where models have not been that helpful.  Early next week models have been flip-flopping about an area of low pressure spinning up to give us a rain chance, minor if it happens but the potential feature can't be discounted.  It is a low confidence period of the forecast.  At this point, I am going to keep rain out but consider cooler temps and deep marine layer but may have to adjust that. 

Then we look pretty quiet again until the 19th-22nd which again is an interesting period.  For one, this is a long way out so we are always talking about forecasts in this range to be something we need to view flexibly.  Models have suggested we could enter a wetter period however just watching them over the last few days the timing and surface features change a lot.  I'd say this far out we see something in this range of days but difficult to saw how robust it would be based on the changing math on the current runs.  The reason I am spending time talking about this is due to the desperate need for rain this month.  It is our major rain month and it is possible it could be dry which could make it dry which has only happened twice before in our extensive records back into the 1800s.

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