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Cooler temps and even a chance of rain next week - KSBY.com | San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Area News

Cooler temps and even a chance of rain next week

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The massive ridge of high pressure which has dominated the weather across California for weeks looks to buckle into early next week.  The main feature we are interested in locally is an area of cut-off low pressure.  These pesky weather features are notorious for being difficult to nail down.  The reason they are called “cut off” is that they are upper-level areas of low pressure which get less steering from the jet stream, they are like the weather version of a knuckle-ball. 

Early next week models agree one of these cut off lows spins up just off the Santa Barbara County coastline and drifts south. Yesterday models had the position of the low where it could draw up some moisture and deliver up to an inch of rain across the sensitive Southcoast.  Today models still show the feature, however, show it is further south and west initially, not allowing it to bring as much moisture to the area.  I suspect we’ll be tweaking this forecast often before early next week.

Prior to all that the ridge simply weakens.  This weakening ridge will allow for more onshore flow to develop and temps will take a gentle slide into the weekend (which is dry, partly cloudy).  Even though we are talking about a cooldown it’ll still be above average temperatures for most.

Rain from the upper low, if it materializes could start as early as early Tuesday into Wednesday.  After that, it looks to get quiet again until the 20th-25th where modeling has regularly shown the ridge breaking which could allow storms into The West however currently doesn’t look like anything is a direct hit but this could easily change should the pattern open.

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