Wet forecast develops over weekend, late next week; no evacuatio - KSBY.com | San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Area News

Wet forecast develops over weekend, late next week; no evacuations expected

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UPDATE (6:30 p.m.) - Santa Barbara County emergency officials and the National Weather Service also say the rainfall predicted for Saturday and Sunday are unlikely to create debris flows near burn areas. No evacuations are anticipated at this time. As always, we will keep monitoring the situation.

ORIGINAL STORY - Clouds again increase on Thursday and late Thursday into early Friday some light showers are possible for the Central Coast.  Accumulations will be exceedingly small (if anything at all) however that is just one of several systems which will move over the Central Coast in the upcoming week.

An upper trough will move over the Eastern Pacific Ocean late this week into the weekend. While this storm has weak lift, it will tap into subtropical moisture and increasing south winds will provide upslope flow. While the models continue to show some timing differences, at this time the highest rain chances are Saturday night and Sunday morning. During this time, there is the potential for periods of light to moderate rain and possibly brief heavier rainfall mainly on south-facing slopes. 

Peak rainfall rates 0.20 to 0.35 inch per hour Saturday night into Sunday morning:

Peak rainfall rates likely higher coastal SLO County foothills
Preliminary rainfall amounts Saturday through Sunday: South of Point Conception coast/valleys: 0.25-0.75 inch, North of Point Conception coast/valleys: 0.75-2.00 inches, VTU/SBA/SLO County mountains: 1-2 inches, SLO County foothills: 2-4 inches.
This warm system is expected to maintain high snow levels, that will be near or above 8,000 feet throughout this event.


Overall "small" chance of mud and debris flows in recent burn areas but some concern for debris flows near the Alamo burn area.

Then we can look at the extended forecast into and thru next week.  We should see a quiet Monday and Tuesday but Wednesday-Friday next week more rain could return with a colder system.  The track of that system is from the north to the south putting the best chance of heavier rains in SLO county but there is also thunderstorm potential and significant rain with little break between systems.  This is a period in the forecast worth watching.

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