A few more mild days before a significant pattern shift

Posted at 4:14 PM, Mar 04, 2020

More marine layer returns to the forecast into the end of the week. It'll bring down beach temps and near coastal valleys. Outside of that mild temps continue thru Friday. Upper 60s and lower 70s are on tap for most but there will be a trend downward on temps into Friday.

Low pressure spinning up in the Gulf of Alaska looks to carve out a deep trough just off the west coast.

Saturday a weak cold front could cause a few showers, and the trough could also do the same Sunday though it looks like Sunday could be a small gap before a more active period Monday-Thursday next week.

A large low off the coast Monday will likely move into the state Tuesday and slowly drag thru the state into Thursday. Looks like 3-4 days of off and on rain, but the details have changed a bit in modeling today.

Even though the modeling changed there is still high confidence in moderate rainfall. 1-4" of rain looks like a good ballpark to work with at this point. The low looks to tap into sub-tropical moisture. We'll have to watch the rain rates carefully.

1-4" of rain spread over 3-4 days can be OK but if it gets concentrated to a 24 hour time frame then flooding issues could be something to consider. The system next week will also have strong S-SW win