What a day Friday was, very warm across the board with a lot of 70s driven by partly cloudy skies and offshore winds. We'll have some of that offshore flow left Saturday morning, but not nearly as strong as Friday morning. The ridge of high pressure will produce another day with plenty of mid-70s highs. Winds will turn back onshore in the afternoon and some marine clouds could re-develop.
A cold front arrives Sunday with strong high pressure right on its heels. This will mean strong winds develop quickly. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the afternoon. There is already a high wind watch in place for this anticipated event. Additionally it will create dangerous seas with high surf.
Highs will also take a huge hit. Inland temps drop back into the 50s with the coast returning to the 60s. Lows will also be cool for several days after this wind event.
High pressure will rebuild by mid-week for warmer weather.
The big question in modeling is what happens around the 9th-10th. Some models are showing some rain potential but it is far from convincing, the dependable EURO model likes a rain "chance" while the American GFS model likes a pattern shift to aggressive rain potential. One of my friends called the recent GFS runs "fantasy land" so at this point it is far to say the only agreement is that something is up around the 9th-10th but after that best not to make any big bets into mid-month. Statistically speaking we typically are active in Feb. but best not to fall for model "math storms" in deep extended outlooks, when we start to see some of this actually develop we'll get more solid and realistic outlooks as to the potential.
