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Fast warming on Tuesday and Wednesday

Posted at 8:29 PM, May 31, 2020

Interesting pattern this week, there is an upper low positioned SW of the area and will spin and drift slowly to the east.

Initially Monday looks like we are still under control of some onshore flow so temps will be generally mild, though a spray of high clouds from the upper low will push thru the area. This makes a marine cloud forecast difficult, high clouds can disrupt the development of a solid low cloud deck. However at this point the wind flow pattern, dew points and temps all support at least some patchy development but whatever forms should clear to partly cloudy skies.

The upper low is in a perfect spot on Tuesday and Wednesday along with some surface high pressure to support a fast warm-up as the marine depth shrinks dramatically with some morning offshore and weak onshore until the later afternoon or evening. Inland temps could near 100 on Wednesday before we back off at the end of the week, elsewhere above average temps for Tuesday and Wednesday with a gradual cool-down Thursday.

Some showers are not likely, but possible. The upper low will deliver mid-level instability and models show some mountain potential as early as Tuesday or Wednesday but more likely later Thursday into Friday, but this won't impact most communities (perhaps Santa Barbara could see a 10-20% chance of a shower late next week).

Late next week into the next weekend temps will take a big drop with another trough of low pressure swinging thru the Pac NW and NorCal, I think it is a dry trough passage but temps look below average but not uncomfortable.