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A little cool heading into the weekend with a warm-up early next week

Posted at 4:45 PM, Nov 12, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-12 20:49:35-05

The upcoming forecast features some fading cold fronts moving over the area, we saw a weak system drift by last night and another weak front knifes thru the Central Coast later Friday into Saturday but the next impact is small. The next front Friday into Saturday not only dissipates over our area it also runs into a dry airmass which acts like a sponge to the front. Could we see some coastal mist and drizzle, sure. Is much measurable rain likely, no. In fact, I think the weekend forecast looks rather pleasant for getting out and about (safely, of course).

Next week was a week we've been watching in the forecasting community. A while back models were showing a deep trough in the Pacific and moderate or better rain potential locally. However, these hopes are shrinking a bit with most major models agreeing that the core low-pressure track is to the north of us. This means we'll only get the tail end of a front moving thru the region. It'll have the same issue the Friday-Saturday front will have, weak dynamics and a dry airmass in place.

So, while rain is possible significant rain is unlikely. Right now it looks like more of a miss than a hit, but I will add that it looked slightly better on modeling today than it did yesterday. It is possible the forecast gets re-worked for this system, it wouldn't take a lot this far out to bring better rain chances back. If the trough is deeper or further east the rain could be better. I'll let you know if I see those changes.

There are a few things to watch over the weekend. One is the building wave situation. The big low-pressure system we were pinning our rain hopes on may track to the north but it'll still put enough wind energy into the water for large waves.

Another thing to watch the next few nights is the wind speed in the Santa Barbara County mountains, passes and canyons, and the adjacent Southcoast. I think we'll see some moderate Sundowner winds, but perhaps just under advisory levels.