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Heat wave may not be extreme but looks to last most of next week

Posted at 2:54 PM, Sep 25, 2020

We've already had a taste of warm weather several times this week essentially everywhere when morning offshore winds pushed marine clouds out. Morro Bay has been temps near 80 and Pismo Beach into the lower 90s. All this look place without an arching upper level ridge, a feature common to many offshore-warm events.

That very feature will be developing Sunday through Thursday next week.

Some offshore winds are like during that time-frame and warm temps looks very likely. The larger question is just how warm will it be locally. Right now it appears the winds locally won't be particularly strong offshore. Much of the warming will depend on high pressure squishing out marine influence near the coast. Southern California winds look higher.

The easterly and northeasterly component will likely drag a bit of Creek Fire smoke into the area, I think it'll likely just be a lighter haze but that could happen as early as Sunday.

Again the tricky part of this forecast is the marine influence, with a lighter wind field Sunday into early next week some marine cloud formation is likely at beaches so it might be the place to beat the heat. The lighter winds likely also mean those beaches may not even see the kinds of highs they saw already this week. Away from the beach the warm temps look likely.

The end of this heat wave has changed a few times in the modeling. Right now I think we are warm thru Thursday with some stronger NW winds developing next Friday.