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More showers Thursday but not a big storm

Posted at 11:59 AM, Dec 15, 2020
and last updated 2020-12-15 20:58:21-05

High pressure has settled over the area in the wake of a weak cold front Sunday which deposited a little rain, too little rain.

The high pressure is driving offshore winds today and helped clean out the skies other than the valley fog we saw in wind-sheltered inland areas this morning. I think the same pattern repeats Wednesday until late in the PM. That is when some clouds start coming in preceding another weak cold front.

Like the last system this will bring the best rain chances in northern SLO county and especially at higher elevations and less as you go down in elevation and definitely less rain as you go south. I guess if you were looking for good news is that this is a decent system for some ski areas elsewhere in CA.

Right after the system leaves there will be more wind, first from the NW later Thursday then shifting again for the night and morning hours offshore heading into the weekend. This will again clear coastal skies but inland valley fog could be an ongoing night and morning concern.

There are still a few ocean issues to discuss. The high surf advisory for the Central Coast was extended a day but the beach hazards statement for the Southcoast will drop tonight.
Let's talk about the long range forecast.

If you read my column yesterday you'll recall I talked about one model (the EURO) seeing a rain system just befoer Christmas but the American GFS model didn't like it.

I mentioned that the GFS often migrates to the EURO, but interestingly today the opposite happened: the EURO joined he GFS in not liking the pre-Christmas system. So even though we are talking about rain opportunities it is important to note that the lack of both system and intensity that the deficits will continue to grow (currently at 1-3" for the rain season that began Oct. 1). The Central Coast and almost all of California is in a moderate drought or worse according to the U.S. Drought monitor.