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One more offshore push before weekend rain chances

Posted at 11:30 AM, Nov 02, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-02 20:29:07-05

We start this week somewhat mild, definitely leaning to the warmer than average side of that equation.

A weak low moved over the area Sunday but is also clearing out rather quickly so temperatures to start the week should still be a little warmer than average, especially away from beaches. At the beaches the low clouds hung on a while in the morning holding temps down.

Tuesday is an interesting day, I like morning clouds but with some better afternoon clearing. I like one last onshore push before two offshore days on Wednesday and Thursday which will crank temps back up into the mid-80s at some of the coastal valleys and the interior could again be near 90 before a big pattern flip-flop this weekend.

Friday a huge winter-style trough cares into The West, cold and windy. Friday looks windy with temps falling back into the 60s for many. The question really is about rain showers. Models have come to some general agreement about the trough and the broad-brush on rain intensity (low) however they don't agree when that rain could fall. The EURO has been the model which other models have been gravitating to over the last 4 days. It shows showers as early as late Friday night into Saturday and another Sunday push.

The American GFS essentially agrees on a frontal boundary late Friday but doesn't like the rain potential until Sunday. Both major models like less than a quarter inch of rain. So stay tuned for more refined detail later this week when the rain event comes into the window of shorter range but higher resolution models.

After that it appears the area could stay in the NW track of more low pressure systems which at very least should keep temps controlled and more rain can't be ruled out but this is starting to fall into the more speculative range of the outlook.