This week features an interesting set-up in that the upper level flow is from the SW but the surface flow is from the northwest. This will produce breezy to windy afternoon and evening conditions near the coast with some early low clouds and afternoon clearing. The SW flow aloft will likely truck in some occasional high clouds to filter sunshine.
Last week parts of the Central Coast hit the 80s and we even saw a 90 degree reading or two, so this forecast might not seem like it is above average but it is for some areas.
Wednesday is looking like the warmest day as the SW ridge aloft peaks and surface high pressure is to the east.
The stronger N-NW winds should keep southern Santa Barbara county generally clear other than high clouds and occasional wind advisories will be possible this week (like we have tonight into Tuesday morning). For the Central Coast we'll have to watch beach and near coastal valley low cloud development potential.
Inland temps are a bit warmer, flow is onshore and when strong NW winds slow we should see some night and morning low cloud potential this week.
In terms of the longer range outlook, models have been pretty inconsistent with a narrative. To me looks like the SW ridge moves off before early next week and what happens after that is a matter of debate.
I don't see much to get excited about any earlier than the 17-20th where the outlooks become quite speculative. The Climate Prediction Center likes the second half of the month to be drier than average and warmer than average.