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Temps will start to cool down as winds pick up

Cambria with high clouds on a nice day
Posted at 4:50 PM, Feb 23, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-23 20:27:35-05

The week started off with much above normal temperatures in the 70s, even mid to upper 70s for some. We'll start to lose some of that heat from Wednesday to the end of the week.

There is a high surf advisory in place into later Wednesday:

The ridge of high pressure over California is being replaced by an inside slider trough. The winds will pick up as this feature moves through Wednesday and more ridging builds in the wake.

Winds will be quite strong at times later Wednesday into Friday, but the strongest winds are likely in Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

Even though temperatures take a hit they will still be above average thru the weekend.

New information today about March rainfall potential. For the last week or so models were in general agreement that a storm system around March 2nd was likely. Now models either kick the rain system back to the 6th or don't see it at all.

This kind of inconsistency fills the longer-range outlooks with much lower confidence.

February was a rain dud and despite our huge January storm, we are still in need of additional rain this season. March has historically been a last-chance month on the Central Coast to cover deficits. This is why the term "miracle March" comes up so often. Right now climate models which take us thru the month do show some potential however not huge systems.

It is best not to focus on individual systems in the longer-range climate models, rather the overall potential. And there is "some", the Climate Prediction Center's last monthly outlook was issued on the 18th and had below average for the Central Coast. The 8-14 day outlook issued today shows us in the equal chances are of below or above average but border an area designated as below average. This is not a robust outlook, and certainly short of a "miracle" at this point.