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Warm weekend on tap with some hints of rain in the deeper extended forecast

Posted at 5:52 PM, Oct 30, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-30 20:52:33-04

Well, we are back at it again with a warmer than average forecast, with some temperatures for the weekend in to early next week in the 80s and even some lower 90s. Even beaches should see temps into the 70s and lower 80s.

The reason for this is more night and morning offshore wind, it lagged a bit today and some marine clouds were around early causing some temps to dip but it was only a temporary change. Reinforcing offshore flow develops over the weekend into early next week before it loses steam.

Generally, the weather stays above average into late next week, and that is where the questions of rain enter the forecast.

The European mid-range model likes a significant frontal system passing thru the area Saturday or Sunday next week but most weather models don't agree. Before you discount this as an outlier, the EURO model (as it is called) is actually a very good model and often other models come around to similar conclusions, kinda like copying a math test from the kid sitting next to you. One of the big differences between models isn't only in the algorithms used but also in how the current weather is captured. It is generally agreed the EURO does this better than any other model, while there is work to get better data into models there are still some significant differences in how all the math starts.

OK, back to the forecast. The offshore winds over the weekend will be locally gusty at times with 10-20mph winds in some places in the night and morning hours with return afternoon onshore flow but not very strong, under 15mph. This should keep low clouds at bay but some high clouds are possible Sunday and Monday from the south, not a significant factor in the forecast.
I think some marine clouds near the beaches and coastal valleys should return by the middle of next week.

I did some additional digging into the long-range models and ensembles and some climate models, yesterday they liked an active second half of the month...today not so much. There is some agreement that something around the 14th-15th could develop but looks less wet than runs yesterday.

Suffice to say this is why we don't do 20 or 30 day forecasts, the math gets unclear. It doesn't mean models aren't helpful but without perfect snapshots of current weather, their ability for fine details gets sketchy the further out you go.