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Weekend looks to feature plenty of sunshine and mild temps

Posted at 1:53 PM, Nov 13, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-13 20:49:23-05

There is a weak cold front sliding down the California coastline, it will get into Monterey county this evening. Further to the north the front will produce light showers but I think once it hits the relatively dry air over the Central Coast the front will die. Some clouds are likely but that should be about it.

The passing system has a more significant impact with wind. Tonight into early Saturday the Santa Barbara county Southcoast, passes and canyons will have a Sundowner wind event and some isolated gusts could even top 50mph.

The only other advisory thru the weekend is for high surf. Currently it is just a beach hazards statement but will likely become a surf advisory for 8-12 foot breakers. The other connected issue is a high tide, highest Monday which in combination with the waves could produce some isolated coastal flooding.

Winds turn decidedly offshore over the weekend into early next week, especially in the night and morning hours. Locally gusty speeds are possible near 20-30mph. This offshore will drive temps up, Monday the highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s for some.

The big forecast issue next week is the chance for rain. A series of cold fronts march down the California coastline. The first Tuesday just eases the temperatures but then the questions enter. Models have been turning more pessimistic about local rainfall mid to late next week.

Both major models today show a front either Wednesday or Thursday dying on arrival here. Yesterday one model showed a decent chance of rain but that same model returned to its overall trend of pessimism about the rain potential. I think we could see a few drops but at this point it appears prudent not to buy in on much more than that.

What happens beyond the middle of next week is also in question. One model suggests next weekend is sunny the other has rain, so at this point I'm expecting dry but ready to change that outlook if consensus changes.