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Winds and dry air are top forecast concerns

Posted at 4:44 PM, Dec 02, 2020

We currently have a weak low-pressure system passing thru the area, today this created a little more onshore flow however much stronger offshore flow will develop in the wake of the passing system. These winds will be strongest across Ventura County and the L.A. basin where fire weather watches are in place.

Locally the offshore winds will locally gusty in the night and morning hours from Thursday into the weekend. This will create mostly clear skies. The clear skies will keep producing mild afternoon highs but locally freezing conditions due to the dryness of the air.

Sunday looks to feature more NW winds at the coastline, locally strong up to 25 or 30mph at times however more offshore winds will start next week and those could also be locally strong up to 25mph.

Long-range models continue to produce a number of scenarios and most are quite dry into mid-December.

Currently, individual models and model blends show no direct hits from anything sizable before the middle of December. The details have changed from day to day leading to generally low confidence in the specifics of any pattern change. I will say it still appears models want to open the door to something around mid-December but can't commit to any solutions which hold run to run. I'll keep letting you know about rain potential in the long-range forecast. I only ask that you keep an open mind to the flexibility of forecasts in the deep extended range, as chaos theory does limit the specificity of projections as time increases.