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Quiet weather pattern doesn't show many signs of change

Posted at 12:36 PM, Nov 05, 2019
and last updated 2019-11-05 15:41:00-05

We will continue to see morning offshore winds turning back onshore each afternoon through Friday. In other words we are set up for more of the same in this forecast.

This will mean more low 80s for highs in the interior after overnight temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. At the coast more patchy dense fog is expected during the night and morning hours with morning clearing. Lows in the 40s with highs in the mid to upper 70s in the coastal valleys with upper 60s at the beaches.

If you are looking for rain, you will need to be patient. All the mid-range models push rain back to the 20th if not later. Until then temps look to stay slightly above average.

On my social media today I shared a sea-surface temperature map which shows a large area of above average temperature water, this is the so-called "blob". We last saw the blob in 2014-2015 and it resulted in warmer than average temps and less than average rainfall. While this feature could dissipate, at this point it is still around reinforcing in a highly amplified jet stream. This shape of the jet stream is currently keeping the storm path more than a thousand miles away. Seasonal models suggest warmer and drier than average from December-February. This doesn't mean it won't rain, just that is is more likely than not that we should see less than average results. Certainly not getting rain in October and having to wait more than half of November isn't a great start. That said, there is some study that suggest due to climate factors that the "shoulders" of winter are diminishing in California and we tend to jump right in rather than ramp up to activity. I also shared a study of this on my social media. Consider checking it out at: www.facebook.com/TVDaveHovde