Some better clarity with rain chances early next week

Posted at 3:35 PM, Sep 26, 2018

Over the last week, I’ve been telling you about rain potential early next week.  The reason to look hard at it is due to the drought conditions across the area.  October our 2018-2019 rain season begins where we reset the rain gauges so whatever falls will not help the 2017-2018 rain year which was dismal with much of the area getting less than 50% of average rainfall.

The story up until today was that the European computer model was predicting a lot of rain and the American model little to none.  As of Wednesday afternoon, some agreement was finally visible with .20-.75″ of rain across the area.  Both models are seeing a low-pressure system dropping into the area with some tropical leftovers from Hurricane Rosa in the region to be monitored. The current outlook keep the Rosa supply out of the Central Coast limiting the amount of rain.  Regardless both agree on at least some rain which lifts what was a low confidence forecast to a little more moderate.  What we’d like to see now is some run to run consistency with further updates.

Outside of that inland weather is hot with temps near triple digits thru Thursday before a big 10-15 degree drop expected Friday.  Coastal conditions will still be moderated by significant night and morning marine clouds with temps in the 60s at beaches and 70s in the coastal valleys.

Stay tuned for more updates on next week’s rain potential, this far out some adjustments are sure to be made.