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Warm Friday and Saturday before a little cooling Sunday

Posted at 4:09 PM, Oct 25, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-26 00:11:06-04

Offshore winds are driving clear skies and warm daytime highs in the 80s for many. Friday looks as warm if not warmer with 80s for the coast and near 90s for deeper interior valleys. Beaches look to hit the mid 70s. Night and morning offshore winds generally look to be 10-15mph but some local gusts could peak 20 in passes and canyons around the Central Coast. Some evening and overnight gusty winds are also possible in the passes above the Southcoast in SB county. Winds will stay offshore in the morning but turn back onshore and become breezy NW by afternoon at 15-20mph. Skies will remain mostly clear thru Friday.

I think Saturday is similar, perhaps a degree or two cooler for highs Saturday but late in the day into Sunday some marine layer rebound at beaches is possible. I’d expect Sunday temps to cool back into 60s at beaches and coastal valleys back into the 70s (though upper 70s still possible for some coastal valleys) with interior valleys dropping back into the low to mid 80s.

San Simeon from Rachel Meredth

Monday thru Thursday next week interior highs hovver in the upper 70s with coastal valleys in the mid 70s and beaches in the upper 60s. I think we’ll see some night and morning marine clouds but in general the temps should be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

I don’t see any rain until we edge into the 4th of November or so. Models are showing a low spinning up just off Point Conception which could bring up some moisture from the south, however this is a somewhat new development and might not do much to provide rain north of SB county. If this does develop it’ll have to be watched since there is some significant potential for recent burn areas, but it is REALLY early to react strongly to this recent addition to model outputs. After that possibility the forecast again looks quiet. It needs to be said that these edges of the model runs tend to change quickly but since the forecast has been pretty quiet it is at least something to keep an eye on down the road.

GFS Model for 4 a.m. Nov. 5th Model shows potential rain for Santa Barbara county

Update 9:05pm

Nov. 4th 252 hour GFS Model
Newer run removes rain potential

The 18z model of the American GFS took a dramatically different view of the Nov. 5th morning.  It has a surface low but no moisture to work with over southern CA or the Southcoast.  In fact it has dry conditions.  This is exactly why far distance forecasts need to be watched carefully for changes.