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Rain in the forecast for next week

Posted at 4:48 PM, Nov 16, 2018

Smoke in the skies will linger into the weekend as there is still new smoke being produced and the predominant flow is from the north bringing smoke into SLO and to a lesser extent Santa Barbara county from the Camp Fire. The time of year is also a factor, cooler temps allows the smoke to hug the ground and also the winds are currently light not allowing for much mixing.

Our local weekend will feature temps dropping into the 70s for most with 60s at the beaches with a mix of high clouds and more low clouds developing.

Morro Bay by Michele Sherman

Rain would help, but too much rain brings debir flow risk into place. Rain of course could also cmoplicate holiday travel. The rain picture is getting more defined but some timing, location and intensity changes in the forecast may occur.

The two major computer models disagree on the intensity of the first rain chance Wednesday, the American Model is much weaker. It is currently the preferred model since it lines up better with others. However the European Model is very good generally and it likes a rather intense start to rain on Wednesday that can’t be ignored, because if it is right the potential for debris flow could take place.

The following is the narrative from the National Weather Service office in Oxnard preparing people for the holiday week weather:

POSSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING RAIN TO THE RECENT BURN SCARS IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA…

It remains very early for forecast accuracy, however, many computer models suggest that a couple of weak storm systems could impact southwest California next week beginning Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day, and then possibly Friday. The bulk of any rainfall looks to be highest along the central coast (San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties) during this period. There remains a potential for a stronger system for all areas late Saturday to Sunday, Nov. 24-25. Details on timing, rainfall amounts, and intensities vary greatly at this time, but confidence is increasing that rain will occur. There will be a small potential for heavy rain, especially when a storm system moves into the region Saturday to Sunday.

Given the recent wildfires and those that are still burning today, we are compelled to get the word out about the potential for any sign of rain in the near future. At this time, it does appear rain may develop mid-week and at times through the Thanksgiving holiday. We realize that the focus right now is on recovery and repopulating areas impacted by the Woolsey and Hill Fires, but once the fires are out another immediate danger exists for people living below burned hillsides. The potential for debris flows near and below recent burn areas will be likely if heavy rain materializes next weekend. It is very important to keep aware of upcoming storms and to educate the public on the dangers of debris flows.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
• Slick roadways due to oily build-up and prolonged dry conditions
• Clogged drains and culverts from leaf litter and other debris
• Traffic delays and congestion in addition to heavy holiday travel
• Mud and debris flows in and near recent burn scars if higher rain rates develop

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence in rain occurring, Wednesday to Friday, and then Saturday to Sunday, Nov. 24-25.
Low confidence in exact timing, rain amounts and intensities. A computer model projection below shows rainfall totals for all storms through 4am Monday (Nov. 26) with greater than 1 inch along the central coast and 0.5 inch for most other areas. This is very preliminary data and is likely to change!