The weather pattern is about to make a major shift. The dry weather of the last several weeks will quickly turn wet on Wednesday with rainfall over much of the state of California. For the Central Coast showers may greet us early Wednesday but the bulk of the moderate rainfall looks to begin Wednesday afternoon thru Wednesday evening before becoming more showery into Thanksgiving morning.
Rainfall totals will have a rather wide range from under .25″ for some inland location to more than an inch along the coast.
Thursday looks to be generally dry outside of early local showers. Friday another system drops into northern California and could drop significant rainfall from the Bay Area thru Sacramento and over recent burn areas there. That Friday system doesn’t look to make it very far down the coastline and outside of perhaps a few showers much of the Central Coast and SoCal could be missed.
Santa Barbara County continues to monitor the storm predicted for Wednesday. At this time the forecast is below 0.4 inches per hour; well below the thresholds that could cause debris flows in & around recent burn areas in SB County.
The National Weather Service has discussed minor debris flow potential over recent fires there, and in northern California there is actually a flash flood watch over the Camp Fire and other recent complex burns.
In terms of the temperature forecast. Tuesday looks mild and partly cloudy with many highs in the low 70s both inland and at the coast with only the beaches in the 60s. Wednesday-Friday highs will drop into the 60s.
The pattern does look like it has changed since other system are showing up in the modeling: something around the 29th and another system around December 2nd.
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