A little better clearing for coastal areas today while inland skies cleared in the late morning, slightly higher temps resulted.
Cloud cover re-develops for the coast and inland areas overnight with less clearing into the afternoon Thursday (partial clearing but not complete).
Thursday night an upper low comes in from the Pacific and merges with a trough backing into the area from the east. This new and stronger upper low starts near the Central Coast and looks to drift SE into southern CA into Saturday.
This morning up at the pier… Hearst Castle in the back ground.
We could see upper elevation showers and scattered thunderstorms as early as Thursday PM, this will likely stay east of our area but could impact the Santa Barbara county mountains.
Showers and even scattered thunderstorms are still possible Friday, as the low spins over the Central Coast. There will be cold air high in the atmosphere making thunderstorms possible, which of course produces the potential for hail and lightning should thunderstorms form.
While rain is possible as early as Thursday afternoon, it becomes more likely Friday morning and scattered activity is possible into Saturday afternoon.
The range with the forecast is essentially .10″ to as much as .60″ with locally higher amounts possible near thunderstorms.
How much rain.. well this is a model so don’t get hung up on the deterministic numbers here. The forecast range is .10-.60″ with locally higher amounts possible.
With the low over us temps will run cooler Thursday and Friday but rebound quickly as the low exists Saturday. I think we probably need to keep the chance for rain and thunderstorms in Saturday should the low be slow to drop out of the area. Activity should be done Saturday night.
Yes, the system does linger into Saturday. I think there is enough cold air aloft that scattered showers and even a slight chance of thunderstorms exists into the afternoon.
Dry weather with decreasing clouds can be expected early next week.