70s for Wed & Thu, cooler weather and rain is on the way

Sunset over the Central Coasts beautiful fields
Posted at 5:52 AM, Feb 08, 2023

Good Morning Central Coast!

To kick off your Wednesday we have clear skies and mild conditions, while this is good news for those commuters it may not last for all. The Central Valley is inundated with tule fog, this may spill over into the interior valleys as the morning goes on.

A large ridge of high pressure has moved in and is going to warm us up dramatically over the next few days. The broad clockwise circulation around a high pressure will direct winds offshore across the region. This will press air down to lower elevations as it nears the coasts, that compression will warm the air mass and alongside abundant sunshine warm up the daytime high temps substantially.

Highs will climb to the upper 60s and low 70s today and may climb even higher for Thursday. Enjoy it though, it isn't going to last.

Friday an approaching low pressure will weaken the offshore winds and bring in cloud cover once again. Highs will fall slightly but at least for the daytime hours it will still be a good one!

Late Friday night into Saturday morning our next system will arrive in earnest. This will be a small very quick moving system that will firstly shift our winds, effectively cutting off the heating and then it will bring in some light rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Rain totals will likely be between 0.10" and 0.25" and will fall slowly. As it gets a little closer this will come into greater detail. As of Wednesday morning most of the models are sold on this rain chance but not all of them. The EURO, GFS and Canadian models are all on the same page, the NavGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model is not settles on it yet).

This storm will also knock Saturday’s high temps back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most. But already by Sunday, some mid-60s return to the forecast. Monday also looks mild but Tuesday's temps could make a cooler turn.

The interesting thing that is popping up in models is the struggle to figure out what the weekend of the 18th-19th could look like. Some models show a weak tumbling system pushing thru California but there is also some modeling showing a much stronger environment is possible. The current wave pattern of the jet stream makes some of this longer view forecasting a real challenge. It is a time period to begin to watch carefully.

Have a great day Central Coast!