A few more mild days inland before temps push back to 100

Morro Bay with some light marine layer clouds
Posted at 12:59 PM, Jul 25, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-25 20:58:22-04

Inland temps took a big turn over the weekend when highs went from roughly 100 Friday and Saturday into the 80s on Sunday and Monday. Most of the change was driven by a ridge of high pressure departing from the region and being replaced by SW flow aloft. This flow pattern produces weaker high pressure and cooler temps.

The beginning of this week still features the SW flow aloft so inland temps likely stay below average (94) Tuesday and close to average Wednesday before going back to near 100 late this week.

That increase will be driven by the SW flow aloft weakening and even some easterly flow could develop. This could allow the monsoon to again creep west.

At the coast, I think the same general temperature trend of cooler then warming also takes place but due to ample marine influence already in place, the differences in temperature are likely to be lower so some may not even notice the subtle pattern change.

The Climate Prediction Center likes temps to be above average with the monsoon creeping west in their outlook for 8/2 to 8/8. I’m less sure about this.

Modeling appears to indicate some trough development in the flow across The West. I’d say for the deeper extended forecast something near average could be a better bet but we’ll take another look at this as models continue to examine the features of the extended forecast.

(Update: the CPC has since changed the outlook I discuss here to "near average", the precip outlook didn't change)