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A powerful storm draws near with a "high risk" of excessive rainfall

Posted at 5:07 PM, Mar 13, 2023

After the Friday storm, the Central Coast is still pretty saturated, and a powerful system is drawing close.

Rain is likely. We've already seen a few showers prior to the atmospheric river plume arriving and the frontal boundary, but more rain develops overnight.

It looks like some of the heavier rain will arrive before sunset and be around for the commute. Rainfall rates of .50-1+"/hour are likely with the peak rainfall. A flood watch is in place, meaning that area flooding or flash flooding is possible.

The Weather Prediction Center has identified the Central Coast as being in an "at least 70% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point in the high-risk area" (please refer to the graphic).

Before all is said and done with the rain (from early Tuesday into Wednesday): generally 1-5" of rain appears probable with 4-6" in the hills/mtns. (possibly isolated areas of 8-10").

It'll be interesting to see how the reservoirs/lakes handle the coming rain, many are at or near capacity.

Infrastructure has been stressed by the active weather year, so please heed all local guidance about evacuations, travel, etc.

Trees have also been weakened by the storms, and the forecast of additional rain and wind could cause more to come down. This is dangerous in itself but also could be an issue with power.

Winds will also dramatically increase just before sunrise Tuesday. S-SW winds 20-30 with gusts to 40-50mph are possible for most of the area with gusts to 60 possible in the hills/mtns. of the area. There are wind advisories and high wind warnings in place.

Winds will also drive powerful surf and an advisory begins Tuesday and lasts into early Thursday.

Models and the Climate Prediction Center agree that the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks appear active and cool.