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A quiet weather pattern continues throughout the workweek

Green SLO County hills
Posted at 4:40 PM, Jan 24, 2022
and last updated 2022-01-24 20:40:17-05

For folks wanting a dramatic change in the weather, this will be another week to wait thru.

There is a trough passing thru Nevada on Tuesday which is too far away to create any kind of significant weather however it will act to keep temps essentially where they are. Another trough moves over the ridge again late in the week reinforcing this run of mild but not excessive temps going thru the region. The shortwaves moving thru the jet will trigger several offshore wind events but unlike the conditions, over the weekend there is a lot less in the way of upper-level support so wind speeds will not be as extreme.

What does this all mean? Well, initially we'll see patchy clouds and fog, especially on the Southcoast into the LA Basin but it can't be ruled out along the west-facing Central Coast.

I think the next several days will see highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s for many outside of beach communities, some likely will linger in the lower 60s, especially if we get some patchy fog.

Not a lot of day-to-day change until Friday when models agree that the big West Coast ridge breaks down. The question is: does this mean rain?

The GFS model loves it, the EURO thinks next to nothing of it.

The ensembles (basically model blending) don't like it either. I think this is a situation where a forecaster has to be careful about bias, basically searching for the thing we'd like to see: rain. Is it more likely than during the week? Of course. Is it a high confidence event? No. In fact, if you were leaning there is more pointing against it than toward it. Best to say there is no strong signal and wait to see if alignment takes place. For now, a low percentage chance in early Feb. looks like a decent hedge.