The Central Coast rain season got off to a good start in October with a 1+" rain event for many but since then significant rains have been rare. How a season starts is rarely a good indication of the entire season. Climate experts are calling for a LaNina winter pattern. For California these are often indicators of lower than average rainfall.
A LaNina is a condition where sea temps in the Pacific are lower than average in key areas which in turn impacts the mean position of the main branch of the jet stream which steers winter storm systems. The relationship between LaNina and rainfall is not a perfect one, occasionally we'll get wet LaNina years however as a rule-of-thumb it is a decent indicator to watch. This is why it was nice to get off to a good start this season knowing that lower than average potential is possible.
Well, the current pattern looks warm, dry, and rather persistent.
A large ridge in the upper atmosphere will keep the storm track well to the north. High pressure dominates under the ridge giving the Central Coast more night and morning offshore winds and generally light afternoon return flow. This produces dry and clear nights and cool temps inland. The clear skies and dry air can also warm quickly so afternoon temps in the 70s and 80s are likely in the short and even mid-term forecast.
When will the pattern break? Well, models are close to being hilarious about that. There are all kinds of run-to-run inconsistencies and it is rare that any of the mid or longer-range models are lining up at the moment. The American GFS has liked the idea of something getting going around the 5th or 6th but then kicks the can down the road another week (that's what happened again today). Other models don't see it at the moment. I'm inclined to call the extended forecast a low confidence forecast and plan to stick with generally warm and dry conditions until better indicators develop.
