The Central Coast experienced a good rain event Tuesday with much of the area getting .50-2” of rain. Wednesday was a break between systems but more rain is coming and soon.
This next event actually could start this evening with clouds increasing and some drizzle or sprinkles beginning but better opportunities are later overnight (with a cold front skirting us to the north) and then later Thursday with more moisture supply and a warm front also passing by to the north.
This is not nearly as direct as the last system, but models suggest anything from light amounts up to .50” is likely into Friday afternoon.
Then we'll see another brief, and possibly imperfect, break before another system arrives for New Year's Eve. When I say imperfect, I mean that a few stray sprinkles are possible with new moisture supply streaming in ahead of the next storm. It is definitely more of a break Friday than any action.
Saturday looks wet with a stronger frontal system moving in along with some atmospheric river connection. This connection is not as strong as Tuesday's but still enough for another .50-1.5” rainfall delivery locally. Statewide, some flood watches are already issued ahead of this event, including Monterey County and much of the San Joaquin Valley. This is so nearby that we could also see similar concerns develop. Stay tuned.
And the outlook after that continues to look active into 2023. Mid-range weather computer models all like a series of follow-up systems possible into the second week of Jan. The 4th-6th is a timeframe to watch for another stronger storm. Models have some alignment on that but start to differ a bit from there out to the 12th. If you add all the potential activity from now until the 12th some models suggest up to 6” of rain is possible, conservative outlooks are more like 3”. I expect more alignment as we draw closer in time to these larger systems.
