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After a lull Monday afternoon, rain looks to return and likely come down much harder

Coastal rain
Posted at 3:35 PM, Nov 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-07 19:26:33-05

The initial rain showers with this week's storm system fell overnight into the early afternoon with a bit of a lull that developed after that.

Don't be fooled, much more of this storm system is yet to come and it is likely to be the most intense part of the system.

The initial showers fell along the leading edge cold front, but now a second cold front which is connected to the deeper core of low pressure and best dynamics of the system arrives before sunrise Tuesday.

The upper trough also passes over California which will cool the atmospheric profile significantly.

Not only are more showers expected, but thunderstorms can't be ruled out due to upper air instability. The Storm Prediction Center has identified much of California as being at "marginal" risk of convection.

For us, this usually manifests as scattered thunderstorms with higher rain rates, lightning, thunder, and scattered hail potential. There are no severe watches at this point for that potential activity.

There are two active advisories. One advisory is for interior winds on Tuesday from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday where Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected for the Cuyama Valley, San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys, San Luis Obispo County Mountains and Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains.

The other is a high surf advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am for large breaking waves of 8 to 11 feet with local sets to 12 feet with dangerous rip currents. Highest on the west and northwest-facing beaches.

The additional rain potential is still significant. When we look back at this system we'll likely get that .50-2+" of rainfall that we at KSBY have been forecasting.

I think if we were to massage the forecast a little it would be to include the potential for some isolated areas of 3" rainfall. Because of the convective nature of this second part of the system, I'd expect a wide variety of reports all along the forecasted accumulation range. While we can show maps of deterministic outlooks (ones where a town has a specific rain value), it is always best to prepare for the range.

Some snow accumulation is possible at the highest elevations in our area, but it is a larger issue elsewhere like The Grapevine and The Sierra.

The system will be most impactful Tuesday and start to taper late, some scattered shower potential is possible early Wednesday but we should be working our way out of the system by then.

The rest of the week looks quiet but there is some disagreement about the outlook for the coming weekend. The American GFS likes dry but the EURO likes showers. The ensemble models aren't a lot of help either, they essentially can't align. Generally, when you get an outlook like this you opt for dry until there is better agreement. For now, I'll go with dry but don't be stunned if rain enters that weekend forecast.