This week continues to be very mild. The difference between the middle of the week and the end of the week will be a deeper marine layer.
There is a frontal boundary approaching California north of the Central Coast. While the front looks to lose dynamics before crossing the Central Coast, it will still have a minor impact: keeping clouds in the picture for the coast and interior. The additional clouds and onshore flow will hold temps in the 60s for most.
There is some change this weekend. A ridge will build into the Central Coast for several days. Saturday we'll see the skies clear in the morning and Sunday and Monday look warmest before the next trough arrives around mid-week to drop temps.
The big issue Sunday will be the strength of the offshore flow and the dryness of the air.
Southern California will see a legit Santa Ana wind event with some winds hitting 50+ mph. Locally the winds will not be AS strong but still strong enough for a Fire Weather Watch to be posted for Sunday. E/SE winds 10 to 20 with gusts to 35 mph are expected with relative humidity as low as 6 to 12 percent. If a fire were to develop during this time it would have growth potential and potential dangerous fire weather behavior.
Some models show a front rolling thru the area Wednesday but I think it'll be a dry passage. After that models continue to suggest potential as November ends and December begins BUT the details seem to change run to run. At times it looks like the beginning of a wet period other times it looks like a one-off shower event. Suffice to say it is a ways off and just needs to be monitored as the next potential event window.
It is important as the weekly lake levels continue to show declines in storage and the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no change with 100% of the Golden State still in drought.
