Cooler conditions for next few days before another temp surge with the coming weekend

Bird flies over coastal sunset
Posted at 1:55 PM, Jan 31, 2022

A ridge of high pressure will be replaced by a trough which will turn offshore winds into onshore winds for a few days. The net impact will be not only cooler highs but also a mix of clouds. Temperatures will go from above average to below average for the next few days.

Some northerly flow does move over the area which should clean out some of the clouds on Tuesday and Wednesday but temps will remain on the cool side for lows and highs but we'll see some sunshine.

The offshore flow developing Tuesday night might be enough for a wind advisory for the Santa Barbara Southcoast.

Surf looks to grow a bit into mid-week.

There is more offshore wind on Wednesday, more in SoCal than here but it is also from a cold source to the east so any warming we might get from the direction may be more than offset but the conditions of the source air. I think Wednesday looks to be the coolest air of the week.

Models are generally in agreement with the mid-portion of the forecast (Thursday thru the weekend), offshore winds dominate and temperatures rebound. Many places return to the 70s for highs.

Long range forecasts also don't show much. The American GFS likes a cold inside slider at the end of the run about mid-month. End of the run storms are not all that helpful since it gets into the speculative area of models. Other models also see something around mid-month however less than 1" system if it develops.

The general set-up looks like more inside sliders, cold and windy systems without much big rain potential. More dry than wet in Feb. is what guidance is showing right now. That could change quickly as February is one of the most dynamic times of the year for weather in California.