Despite some clouds temps still set to soar around Christmas

Posted at 4:56 PM, Dec 20, 2022

The last week or so the Central Coast has been on the cool side with lows in the 30s for many and highs in the 50s and 60s. As we push toward Christmas weekend the temperatures look primed to climb. Looks like 70s are likely for the Christmas weekend, mid-70s for some on the Central Coast before cooling toward the middle of next week.

Let's back up a bit and talk about what is happening at the moment. There is a low-pressure system off the CA coastline bringing clouds to us but showers to parts of Northern California. The reason we are not in on the precipitation is the building ridge of high pressure which is knocking the low-pressure system north. That ridge grows into the coming weekend. The resulting surface high pressure will clear out the skies and warm the atmosphere.

The ridge looks to slide east by the middle of next week. This will "open the door" to systems aimed at California. There has been a significant shift in the forecast just after Christmas. It now appears that a series of low-pressure systems will make a more direct line to the Central Coast. In prior model runs the consensus was that weak cold fronts were on the way for the Central Coast into the first week of 2023.

Now, it looks like the low-pressure centers will be much further south and the dynamics much better for meaningful rainfall, some models are over an inch thru the first week of Jan. with others lower. Suffice to say this is a much more optimistic rain outlook but since this is the first day of this narrative, likely just something to watch develop over future model runs.