Our current weather pattern is a bit of a bummer for those hoping for more significant rainfall. There is a wet pattern but it is focused on the Pacific Northwest. The jet stream is steering the low-pressure cores of storm systems far away at this point and the only thing that moves thru our area are the tail ends of cold fronts. The net impact of this is to shift winds back and forth a bit, producing an occasional deep marine layer but not really giving us a chance of rain.
That said, the storms themselves are strong and well to the north over the Pacific they are creating high winds and therefore high waves, they flatten a bit as they radiate down the coast but still are tall enough to prompt a high surf advisory into Friday for some 10-14+ foot waves with locally dangerous rip.
Winds in Santa Barbara county's passes, canyons, and higher elevations are strong enough for a wind advisory into Friday morning as well. Winds elsewhere are only locally breezy in the afternoons and early evenings.
Friday actually looks very mild with some scattered 80s in the area. There will be a very strong offshore push later Thursday PM into around noon Friday.
Temps fall back significantly over the weekend with another decaying cold front passage and Sunday's larger trough digging thru the area will reinforce a cooldown.
This realigned jet position will give us a chance at rain later Monday or Tuesday. Models have struggled to position the rain field. It does look like a glancing blow at best as the bulk of this system's energy appears pointed north of the area. Models today agree on a lighter rain, under .50".
The EURO likes up to .50" while the GFS model shows mostly a miss outside of northern SLO county, but late yesterday it had an entire miss. Needless to say, there is some doubt on the specifics at this point. Stay tuned.
