FIRE AND FROST: Forecast concerns to begin the week

Posted at 4:48 PM, Oct 30, 2023

The Central Coast has been somewhat fortunate in terms of fires thus far this season, but today a fire broke out in the hills above SLO High School, and another near Cal Poly. There is more coverage of both fires on the KSBY Website. But this is precisely a time of concern in the forecast with dry air and offshore winds developing.

In the SLO area, the afternoon winds have been onshore driving the fire south and east but northeast winds are in the forecast overnight into Tuesday morning which will drive the fire more westerly. Fuels also respond differently in dry air environments which is also expected with offshore flow. Temps Tuesday will also rise to the 80s so you have warm weather concerns as well.

Outside of SLO the offshore winds will drive cold lows in the Santa Ynez Valley where a frost advisory is in effect and a freeze warning is in effect for the interior valleys where temps will be at or below freezing for enough hours to kill plants. And again, despite the cold start temps will still recover to pleasant to warm daytime highs.

This is all possible due to the huge ridge in the upper atmosphere which develops surface high pressure. That flow is easterly for the most part and that is why SoCal has a Santa Ana wind event and we also have some significant winds to deal with.

Much of the week looks mild for highs and cool for lows.

Not much on the rain front until the 10th or 11th when models show some shower potential, but that is a way off.

Halloween trick-or-treat temps look great actually because it’ll be so warm during the day. The coldest temps don’t develop until late overnight in the hours just before sunrise.