It is time we talk about the Monday-Tuesday storm potential

Rainfall returns
Posted at 4:42 PM, Dec 09, 2021
and last updated 2021-12-09 20:48:54-05

A splash and dash storm system raced thru the Central Coast (and most of California) producing widespread showers but not too much difficulty in terms of impact. Rainfall locally generally stayed in the forecast range which was under .30".

This system is moving out quickly and high pressure is building in the wake. This will produce some locally gusty offshore winds and clear to partly skies thru the weekend. Already some overnight lows in the interior could be near frost or freeze conditions tonight but are more likely to produce freezing conditions Friday night into Saturday and a Freeze Watch has already been issued.

The weekend looks dry but considerably colder than conditions have been around the Central Coast in some time. Highs over the weekend will stay in the 50s and lower 60s for most.

Monday a much stronger storm system arrives, right now the timing looks like a PM arrival but that could change since the center of low pressure with the system is still in the Gulf of Alaska.

What makes this system much stronger is not only the over-the-water trajectory of the low but also strong southerly winds which will precede the low. Additionally, there is also a good sub-tropical connection which will prime the pump for not only higher rain projections but also potentially higher rain rates which could spark concerns about debris flow in the Alisal Fire burn scar.

Right now 1.5-5" of rain is in the outlook for the 2-day storm. Snow looks to remain rather high during the prime production of the event, 7000ft and up.

If you compare this system with the strong October storm, the upcoming storm looks to be a good bit stronger.

Thunderstorms don't look likely right now at about 10% chance but that could change as additional high-resolution modeling will come online this weekend for the upcoming system. A number of potential advisories are possible from flood advisories to wind advisories to potential debris flow potential advisories depending on the system's development.

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