9:15pm update by Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
As I mentioned during the 6pm news, we may have to crank up the rain potential for Monday. I've been going with light to .75 with some totals to 1". The latest GFS model likes up to 2" and it joins some runs of other models with high potential. It is still really early to cast this in stone. Timing and intensity can certainly change and I would expect some tweaking over the next few days. That said, I think we need to at least tell people about the modeling showing high potential.
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This week has been a revolution for the Central Coast coming off the heatwave, then the muggy and tropical weather that even spawned some rain and thunderstorms. Since Monday the marine-influenced and cool weather has dominated.
It is next Monday drawing a lot of attention in the Central Coast weathercast. Models have been lining up for a good soaking rain event in NorCal with the Central Coast still in line for some reasonable rain.
It needs to be said however that rain looks to fall off from north to south and we are in the gradient where south of the Central Coast not much is likely.
This means we are again in a wide range of light to .75" with some 1" potential showing up on some modeling. This far out you should expect some timing and intensity adjustments.
By mid-week models show warming temperatures.
The short-term forecast continues to look cool with a lot of night and morning marine cloud cover, even into some interior valleys into and thru the weekend.
Beaches will continue to see more cool highs in the 60s with coastal valleys in the 70s and 70s and low 80s inland. Overnight lows also cool on the cooler side.
There is a wind advisory in place for the SW portion of Santa Barbara county where Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are likely. The advisory expires at 3 am. But breezy afternoon and early evening winds are still likely over the next few days.
The drought was mostly unchanged week to week but 100% of the state is still in drought. Lake levels also continued to drop but at a slower pace than the last few weeks.