More active weather pattern developing

Lompoc Lightning
Posted at 8:48 PM, Oct 04, 2021

This afternoon and into the evening showers and some isolated thunderstorms pushed into the Southcoast from Southern California. This feature was expected since last week. This is the remaining low pressure from a system that cut off and lingered off the California coast over the weekend. It finally tracked into land and pulled up some subtropical and warm air from the south as was able to produce a few showers and storms. A lot of the activity was at the mid-levels so it looks amazing on the radar but generally, the ground truth is that less than .25" fell where rain was even recorded.

This activity potential is not done quite yet, modeling is showing another possible round overnight into early Tuesday but the fall-off zone looks to be near the Ventura and SB county line, and most of the activity staying south of the Central Coast.

Otherwise, it was a day with mid-level cloud cover and some smoke haze. Temperatures were warmer than average for most coastal locations but a pattern shift is taking place this week with the jet stream carving out a trough. This will actually be a very strong jet flow but without a lot of available moisture to work with, front later this week are likely only to produce some clouds and maybe pockets of mist and drizzle or a light shower but much more is not expected.

Down the road however mid-range modeling is showing more potential activity around mid-month. Cool and showery weather is possible from an unsettled pattern. I don't see much heavy rain but showers are better than nothing and cooler temps alone will lead to less drought and fire stress.