9:41pm update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde: The 0z (evening/night) model runs are coming in and there is more agreement on a Tuesday night-Wednesday rain chance next week. It looks like a cold and windy system with showers but not heavy rain. The EURO stands out currently as the model that simply doesn't see it. It should be noted the EURO is generally a good model, but not only do several other models see the system the model ensembles (essentially model blending) is also rather optimistic. Looks more like a Wednesday system so you won't see it on the 7-day, yet.
(—-from the earlier story—-)
After the wild ups and downs of weather over the last week or so, this forecast looks very quiet. Interestingly the pattern producing the quiet weather is actually rather active in terms of meteorological pieces.
There is a trough in the PacNW that will shoot several weak cold fronts thru California. None of these have ample moisture to produce any rainfall, but what they will do is keep the breeze up thru Wednesday.
Thursday a short-lived ridge moves over California but by Friday a complicated positively tiled trough will be positioned west of California. This will keep the state in a weak elongated trough but with some SW flow moving thru SoCal. The net impact of all this complexity will actually be more of the same in terms of surface weather.
Highs look to remain a little shy of seasonal averages with beaches in the 60s and coastal valleys in the 60s and low 70s with the interior clipping along in the 70s.
Mid-range forecast models have an interesting disagreement today. The generally reliable EURO model thinks Nov. 2nd will be a quiet and dry day. Two different runs of the American GFS (the 12z and 18z) both like a rather large and cold storm in California.
The GFS has been showing a tendency to develop something in early Nov. Yesterday it showed something like this at the 18z run but the following 0z run showed nothing. So, being two models disagree and the GFs occasionally disagrees with itself.. this is a low-confidence event right now. However I will say this, the same output on back-to-back GFS runs makes me want to see the 0z when it comes out tonight. Like many, I'd welcome some rain for a variety of reasons.
At 4pm today I broke down a little more about the San Jose area earthquake today, I included that clickable segment at the top of this story.
