Good Morning Central Coast!
Rain has been no stranger to the Central Coast this winter and we are still working through even more rain today (and I hate to break it to you, through the extended forecast).
Tuesday's rain was fueled by a cold front associated with the main system that will push through today. The good news though with this 1-2 punch of a storm is that for the early morning today, we have a bit of a break.
That (imperfect) break will only last through the mid morning hours when the first round of thunderstorm potential moves into the region. Those scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will last into early Thursday morning.
These will be highly localized and best seen using ourinteractive radar for up to the minute information.That being said the worst of the storms are expected in the evening hours. This may make for a messy commute home. Additional storms are expected to last well into the overnight hours. Eventually the low will move south far enough to cut off the energy from our storms. Once the low shifts south skies will clear. There is a chance of a few pop up storms into the day Thursday but they will be isolated.
The bands of heaviest rain later Wednesday into Thursday will likely have higher rainfall rate and rainfall accumulation potential, but it will be localized. That being said the Central Coast has been identified by the Storm Prediction Center as having a chance of thunderstorms into very early Thursday morning. This comes with risk of lightning, remember "when thunder roars, head indoors."
Thunderstorms introduce the potential for brief heavy rains, winds, hail and waterspouts and small tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Stay weather aware.
The Weather Prediction Center has also highlighted the Central Coast as having a chance of excessive rainfall into Thursday. This is not because this storm will produce epic rain, it likely will produce less than 2” for most but the rainfall rate potential is high and the sensitivity is also an issue due to saturation.
Rain totals from the storm will likely be between 1" and 2" across most of the region. Local heavier amounts where thunderstorms set up shop is expected as well as higher totals at the highest peaks. Rain totals so far can be found at this link.
Here is what is LEFT in the storm.
Snow levels will drop down to about 5000ft. Above that accumulating snow is likely and higher winds. A winter weather advisory has been posted for the Santa Barbara County Mountains.
We are likely not done with rain for the season after this storm. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook calls for cooler than average temps and wetter than average precipitation. Models do show more storm potential but exact details are sliding around a bit from run to run. When these outlooks concur on dates and intensity we’ll talk about those events. But for now, after this storm exits on Thursday it looks like we’ll at least have a dry weekend that will also be a bit warmer.
Have a great day Central Coast! Be sure to stay weather aware, you can download the KSBY Microclimate Weather App for more from your forecast!