Near-record temps continue thru the weekend

Morro Rock with the sunshine
Posted at 4:42 PM, Nov 11, 2021

Only a couple of days ago we were running the numbers for rainfall and today we have to consider if the maximum temperatures are records or not. So far, Thursday looks like a narrow miss.

The records in SLO are rather "gettable" the next few days in the upper 80s.

Currently, I am predicting ties for Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere, I think we will also be very very close and could break a few narrowly. We'll hold the heat thru Sunday. Monday looks to see temps sag a few degrees but more significantly into the middle of next week.

A large ridge is covering The West so we are not alone in the near-record or record heat. The ridge allows surface high pressure to be strong and strong high pressure produces sustained NE (offshore) winds. Now, the winds are not as strong as when the ridge set up but still looks to occasionally ne 15-25mph with higher gusts. Wind advisories have dropped but we are missing them only narrowly at some points in the forecast window.

It should be noted that warm and dry air does produce higher fire risks, recent rainfalls have lowered the overall risk but not eliminated it.

No surf advisories but nice moderate swells look to continue thru the weekend. Offshore winds do help hold curls up and are a bonus for some surfers.

The ridge weakens next week and some onshore flow sets up in the afternoons and high temps tumble but still are rather mild.

Interestingly there isn't much in the deeper extended forecast until (wait for it....) Thanksgiving. At that point, models are showing a pattern break and a series of impulses moving into CA for rain and wind. This is still a long way out there so expect details to change but it is worth keeping a careful eye on.