One more temp spike before the forecast attention turns to tropically influenced weather

Hurricane Kay Forecast
Posted at 4:29 PM, Sep 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-09-08 01:42:47-04

Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 10:34p

A couple of things to update you on. First the wind situation Thursday and Friday. Thursday looks like it might get breezy out of the SW during the afternoon. This is before winds turn offshore late overnight into Friday morning. The offshore wind event is the reason an excessive heat warning was added to the Central Coast coastal valleys. Offshore events can spike temps and beaches could also warm significantly if the air sinks and compresses. Currently, they are not in the warning, but the forecast bears watching there.

The rainfall outlook for whatever is left of current Hurricane Kay is still a tough call for the Central Coast. Models have essentially been all over the place, most prior to today kept the area short of .50" but today there is some trend toward more rain. I think the Southcoast and mountains should expect to see the most potential locally. If trends keep up, looks like we could see .50, even more for some lower elevations and even for more of the Central Coast with higher elevations potentially experiencing more. The 0Z GFS model liked more than an inch in the SB County mountains. This is about as bullish as I've seen locally, and this is from the model that has been the most conservative to this point.

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The heatwave we are in started for some at the end of August, so we are going on a full week of heat for many. We are still a couple days away before inland heat backs off. The last push of the heatwave caused the interior excessive heat warning to be extended into Thursday and a separate excessive heat warning is in place for conditions expected Friday in coastal valleys where temps near or exceeding 100 are possible.

Yes, the end of the heat wave is in sight but at the expense of another somewhat rare weather situation for California and the Central Coast: tropical weather impacts.

I want to be careful here because we are not talking about a tropical storm landfall in California. What we ARE talking about is significant weather related to a current hurricane.

Hurricane Kay is off the Baja and traveling north. It will ultimately weaken off the CA/Mex border, first to a tropical storm and then a tropical or post-tropical low. While weakening is expected this can still cause significant weather in the Golden State. There is so much moisture associated with tropical systems that even the remnants can be problematic. Rain, thunderstorms, and lightning are all elements we could experience.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center Track for Kay turns the dying system west, avoiding a landfall of the low-pressure center. Modeling also supports this notion but the it also indicates a significant rain event is possible. At this point you have to view the forecasted rainfall flexibility since the track will matter a lot.

This morning models were all over the place with some models showing the Central Coast getting .50" of rain (possibly more) but the main American model showing much less for us locally and in SoCal.

However I think it is important to plan for the higher potential and expect something less, this is more true in SoCal where inches of rain are possible, especially in the hills and mountains.

There are also wave impacts from the storm, even a miss will have a lot of energy in the water, especially for south-facing beaches of the Southcoast and SoCal. Less so for west-facing beaches for much of the Central Coast.

OK, now that the headlines are done let's get to the forecast.

Thursday will still be hot inland and very warm to hot in coastal valleys with beaches as the place to beat the heat.

Friday coastal valley temps spike as interior temps also stay hot. The excessive heat warning for coastal valleys kicks into place as the interior warning could expire, but right now it looks like an extension might be needed.. Some high clouds from Kay are expected to drift into the area filtering some sunshine.

Saturday SoCal will be busy, potentially early, with rain and thunderstorms associated with the leftovers of Kay (either with the TS off the coast or as a tropical depression or post-tropical low). Some folks in SoCal could see inches of rain. Locally, Saturday we should see some showers or thundershowers from Kay. The Southcoast has the best chance. On and off activity will begin early Saturday and could even linger into Monday but the best opportunity for activity looks to be Saturday. At this point, I think folks should expect up to .50" essentially anywhere because of the modeling disagreements there is no reason not to play it safe. I think it probable that the Southcoast gets more rain that elsewhere on the Central Coast. We will refine this much more Thursday and Friday when higher resolution models will encompass the storm.