Onshore flow brings clouds and cooler temps but not rain

Fall colors in northern SLO County
Posted at 3:49 PM, Nov 16, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-17 02:29:14-05

We ended last week and spent the weekend in much warmer than average weather thanks to an arching ridge over The West. That all came to an end when this week began and onshore flow returned. We are still in the base of a trough that really cooled much of the area Tuesday and will continue to bring mild temps Wednesday.

Even though an upper-level ridge is off the coast to the west it looks like onshore flow will continue much of the week. This will deliver seasonal high temperatures, maybe just a bit under the averages.

The issue with the longer-term forecast appears to be that the Central Coast is too far from the storm track which remains to the north. At best the Central Coast is in the decay area of a series of cold fronts over the next 10 days or so.

This looks to ensure no significant rain. In fact, the current GFS model for the next 16 days shows no significant rain state-wide.

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook also confirms a dim rain outlook. This time of year these outlooks can change quickly but they are consistent with similar outlooks over the last week or so.