Our next rain opportunity comes Friday but a larger event waits until the end of the weekend

Pismo Beach at Night
Posted at 4:26 PM, Oct 21, 2021
and last updated 2021-10-21 20:51:10-04

The first significant storm of the season is on the way. We have already picked up minor rains and another such event is on the way Friday but a larger "atmospheric river" event is likely Sunday into Monday which could deliver more than an inch of rain to the Central Coast and inches of rain and potentially feet of snow to Northern California.

Friday a cold front looks to dissipate over the area but not before bringing the potential of up to .10" of rain (for those who see any rain at all).

It is so weak the winds look to stay under 20mph. For most folks it will be a partly cloudy day with some scattered showers, and probably more off than on.

The weekend is interesting in that another dissipating cold front looks to scrape the area later Saturday night into Sunday and again impart maybe some very light rain. I'd call it partly cloudy with some scattered shower potential and this time any measurable rain looks to stay in the hundredths of an inch (for those that see any rain at all).

Late Sunday night into Monday is the main event. This is an atmospheric river-charged event. In Northern California, it could mean up 4-6" inches of rain and feet of snow above 7500ft.

Locally, it looks to be less impactful. I am going to stick with my .50-2.5" of rain outlook with the highest potential being in the S-SW faces along the SLO county north coast and higher elevations and the SLO north county interior.

There will be some fall off the further south you go. However, some decent rain potential will hit the Santa Barbara county Southcoast where the Alisal Fire recently burned and a flood advisory looks likely with low thresholds.

Waves look to peak Monday at 15-20 feet and additional advisories (and possibly a warning) for high surf look likely as well.

Stay up to date on the storm by following and also having the KSBY News and Weather apps as advisories and refinements to the forecast are likely.