Update: 11:05p from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
Update: 3:09pm from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
Here is a flooding and forecast discussion from KSBY's fanpage that I just finished. https://t.co/T70HJFiPrA— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) January 9, 2023
Update: 2:37pm from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
————-from the original story————
The strong atmospheric river storm hitting California today has a second part which will continue the rain and wind thru Tuesday. The associated flooding will likely take some time to dissipate even when the rainfall stops.
Our short-term concern is from this afternoon thru the early evening. The front and the intense rain will push thru Santa Barbara County and the evacuation areas. This will drop 2-6” total near the coast with 5-8+” in the mountains, some equipment has already reported this much and more in the area.
Additional amounts are also a key.
There will be a lull in activity later tonight into early Tuesday but then rainfall resumes. This second part of the storm is likely not as powerful as the first, but all new rain will fall on heavily saturated areas and flooded areas.
Creeks are running and some rivers are hitting flood stage, some reservoirs are filling quickly, and some spilling is either happening or probable at some lakes.
Flash flood warnings are in place into the evening for SLO and SB Counties and this could be extended.
There is a Flood Watch and Flood Advisory in place. At this point, with heavy rain already on the ground and a forecast of more rain in the forecast it is safe to say flooding will be an issue until rain ends and water runs off. Do not drive thru flooded areas, do not enter flood water.
Rainfall is likely Tuesday but will diminish later Tuesday. However, winds return early Tuesday after a lull later Monday. These winds will potentially make trees dangerous and could result in scattered utility issues. The S-SW winds will again be an amplification factor in wind-facing areas with significant topography.
Rainfall amounts on the ground vary but 2-6” are on the ground in SLO County. 1.5” to 4” in the lower elevations of SB County with 4-8+ (a couple gauges read 10”) in the SB County Mountains. Again, we are not done yet with this system.
It is important to note after this system departs, another system is likely around the upcoming weekend. This doesn’t look nearly as strong, but saturation is still in place so a system with .5-3” of potential is still something to watch carefully. There are some timing and intensity questions relating to the upcoming weekend activity, but all models like “something”.