After an early start to the rain season in October there has not been much of a follow-up from the weather pattern. Most of the recent storm systems have tracked too far north or have been too weak to do much.
The system on the way for later tonight into Tuesday afternoon also has a few issues constraining potential. The low pressure core for the system tracks well to the north out of the area so the front will have diminishing strength north to south.
In fact the front looks to dissipate right along the Central Coast. As a result rainfall potential will be highest along the SLO county north coast and at higher elevations where perhaps as much as .50" could accumulate.
However at lower elevations looks like .30" or less would be more reasonable as far south as SLO or Santa Maria. Further south and inland the amounts look to drop dramatically.
Our high resolution modeling shows a few hundredths of an inch possible for the Southcoast but the National Weather Service likes about a 30% chance of rain there, I don't think the two outlooks are much different honestly. If it rains for the Southcoast it won't be much.
A few afternoon showers are possible Tuesday but I think we'll see skies partially clearing by mid-afternoon.
In the evening skies will be clear but some patchy low clouds and fog may be possible in the wind sheltered interior valleys to start Wednesday. Otherwise Wednesday looks mostly clear and temperatures start to warm. Wednesday is a transition day but Thursday thru the weekend we'll see temps star to climb.
I think Friday thru the weekend could see some 80s, even some mid to upper 80s in some coastal valleys as a rather significant high pressure surge and offshore flow is likely. Temps look to fade alittle late in the weekend and into early next week.