Rain next week showing more promise

Posted at 5:53 PM, Oct 27, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-27 20:53:49-04

The quiet weather week for the Central Coast continued on Thursday with some overnight and morning offshore breeze setting the stage for clear skies today with the winds returning onshore this afternoon.

There are changes afoot for Friday. Tonight more marine clouds look to develop. A brushing early is possible but the more likely development will take place later. What cloud cover forms near the coast should clear Friday afternoon.

The meteorological pattern continues to be progressive, in that no single feature sets up for long.

The weekend will be a little warmer, especially inland where 80s are likely. Monday and most of Tuesday will stay dry but Tuesday night thru Wednesday will feature a storm system moving thru The West. Models are beginning to align on the storm in that they all agree something is likely. Where they don't agree yet is on potential. The American GFS is avertising a strong system with .25-1" rainfall locally but the EURO model likes a cold and breezy system, but not particularly wet with totals under .25". For the record, it should be noted that the EURO didn't even see this system on these days until today's runs. Just because it is the outlier doesn't mean it should be discounted. There is some uncertainty about this system at this point. That said, I'll be going with the consensus on modeling that at least a moderate system. I think it is generally better to plan for the potential than simply discount it. Expect adjustments to this portion of the forecast.