Rain will wind down Monday evening with a pattern shift looming

Posted at 4:55 PM, Jan 16, 2023

It comes as a surprise to no one that the January weather pattern has been very wet, 4-5+" more rain than normal thru this time of the calendar year.

The last 4 days alone delivered a few more inches to the party. SLO got hit hard as well as the SLO County's north coast hills with less in Santa Barbara county, as expected.

Monday's lingering rainfall, and isolated thunderstorm activity, were due to the post-frontal cold air behind the system that dumped most of its rain on Saturday.

This system will continue to kick out of the region thru Tuesday. To me, Tuesday looks dry with some early low clouds in wind-sheltered valleys before partially clearing. Wednesday will see even better clearing but temps will be sluggish to recover.

Thursday a frontal boundary pushes down the state, it is possible this creates a drop or two of rain here and there but it is a very weak opportunity. There is an inside slider change around the 25th, but it also doesn't look like a significant rain-maker. This is consistent with outlooks last week that suggest a ridge sets up in The West for the rest of the month steering rain away. It is important to note there will be a trough for the rest of the country as colder weather develops there.

It is interesting to look at the 60-month average for rain. We are near the median for the first time in a long time. Generally, we fixate too much on short-term rain totals where the medium range is really more important for things like drought. It has literally been decades since we've been near the 60-month average.