Update Saturday 10:58am from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde: The basics on the storm forecast remain unchanged. My forecast is still .50-2+" locally. Here is a complete look at the storm in a social media event I hosted just a little earlier this morning:
———from the prior story———-
The Central Coast got some showers earlier this week and generally, cool air followed with a few frost and freeze mornings for the interior this week. Afternoon daytime highs have only recovered into the 60s for many this week.
Saturday looks to be a pretty nice day after a cool start, and a cloudy start in some interior valleys. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are likely in the afternoon with 60s and low 70s for highs.
The first signs of a more active forecast arrive early Sunday morning (before sunrise) when a cold front cuts thru the area. Clouds and perhaps even a few drops of rain are possible but generally, a partly cloudy and cooler day develops. Highs fall back into the 60s for most.
Early Monday morning the first part of the main event looks to arrive. A cold front could start some rain early Monday morning (before sunrise) but the bulk of rain with this system looks to take place on Tuesday.
This activity is associated with the broad and strong upper-low trough. This is a very cool system so highs will be in the 50s for us Monday thru Wednesday. For parts of Califoria this will also be a significant snow producer.
Locally I expect .50-2+" of rain. Most models align to this forecast. The odd member out is the American GFS model which has at times agreed with the higher forecast but the last few runs likes .25-1". You could actually argue the models agree because the standard deviation overlaps and all models like rain and also agree on the timing. Depends on how you define agreement.
To me, it looks like the system departs later Tuesday, or at least most of it should. The current forecast shows showers on Wednesday just as a precaution in case the system drags. Regardless the temperature recovery after this system looks slow.