Saturday rain is likely, the heaviest rains fall in the late afternoon and evening

Posted at 5:55 PM, Dec 09, 2022
and last updated 2022-12-09 20:55:53-05

We've been playing the waiting game for the next storm system all week, and now it is on the doorstep. It is already raining in NorCal and this system will continue to slide south into Saturday.

For the Central Coast rain is not an issue Friday night, but by Saturday morning showers start to fall. This light activity precedes the cold front. The heaviest rain will be along the old front which moves thru the Central Coast NW to SE from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Along with heavier rains along the front the Central Coast will be dealing with significant winds. SW winds 15-30mph for most of the area with higher gusts, but interior and higher elevations could see gusts up to 60mph (23-35mph sustained) and a high wind watch has been issued for that area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

The only other advisory is a winter weather advisory late Sunday night into Monday for the Santa Barbara County Mountains, we could see inches of snow at higher elevations: 3 to 8 inches for elevations above 5,000 feet, and 1 to 3 inches for elevations down to 3,500 feet.

After the front moves by Saturday, the rain will start to break off into on-and-off showers. This continues all the way thru Sunday and half of Monday before the system fully lifts out.

Our forecast for rain has been .50-2" of rain, some models suggest the high side needs to be 3+" but I think totals that high will be isolated (I do think some SW faces and higher elevations will see 3+"). Vivian likes the low end to be .75", and I see her point that guidance certainly shows plenty of potential essentially everywhere, even inland.

After the storm departs, temperatures will not recover much. Highs next week likely linger in the 50s and low 60s.