Showers could return in early November, but heavy rains are unlikely

Posted at 4:43 PM, Oct 26, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-26 19:51:09-04

Thus far this week has been very quiet. Highs this week have generally been running slightly under average. The forecast looks to warm a little this weekend but likely fade early next week. These swings look to stay inside 10 degrees.

There is a ridge of high pressure moving thru overnight into Thursday. This will produce some offshore winds in the night and morning hours. Could be locally gusty but I don't think this is much of a wind event locally. For most, the offshore push will stay under 15mph.

Afternoon onshore winds return but are likely not as strong as the beginning of the week. NW 10-15mph with some local gusts to 20mph.

The overall meteorological pattern is actually rather progressive (in process of change). No particular pattern sets up and remains for more than 24 hours. The net impact of this really is little day-to-day change, no huge trend shifts: more of an up-and-down forecast into early next week.

Early next week a low-pressure system and trough dig into The West. Most (but not all) models like this system.

For the Central Coast, the arrival looks like later Tuesday at the earliest but most impactful to folks on Wednesday. This doesn't look like a very wet system, more cool and windy with showers. Rain amounts should stay under .20". This forecast will certainly be updated as the system develops and draws closer, so stay tuned. The American GFS model likes something larger developing later but pushes the system off the coast. In other words, there are no concrete signs of a large and impactful system with the capability of producing more than a splash and dash.

(Added section)

At 4pm I talked a little about the time change. Yes, the days are getting shorter. Here on the Central Coast we lose about 45minutes of daylight over the month of October. The time change is Nov. 6th. This is what it'll mean: